‘Worst-case scenario’: UN report projects nearly everyone in Africa would catch coronavirus

A report by the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa has projected that “in the worst-case scenario”, Africa could register 1.2 billion coronavirus infections, out of which 3.3 million deaths will arise.

As of Saturday, April 18, Africa had recorded 20, 036 cases of COVID-19, with 4, 654 recoveries and 1, 022 deaths (https://africanarguments.org/).

A World Health Organization (WHO) official now says coronavirus cases in Africa could shoot from just few tens of thousands currently to 10 million within three to six months.

The WHO rep said the body relied on provisional modelling to arrive at the figure, reports Al Jazeera.

Michel Yao, the head of emergency operations for WHO Africa, said on Thursday, April 16, it was a tentative projection that could change.

He noted worst-case predictions for the Ebola outbreak had not come true because people changed their behaviour in time.

“This is still to be fine-tuned," he told a media teleconference, reports Al Jazeera.

“It's difficult to make a long-term estimation because the context changes too much and also public health measures, when they are fully implemented, they can actually have an impact."

The UN Economic Commission for Africa said, in its recent report, that should there be lack of preventive measures taken up by Africans and appropriate intervention by governments, then the continent could register as much as 1.2 billion infections with 3.3 million deaths, says Al Jazeera. Africa, as a whole, has a population size of 1.3 billion people (www.worldometers.info).

That means the 1.2 billion projected COVID-19 infections would account for 92.3 per cent of the continent's population.

Another separate research by the Imperial College in London, Al Jazeera reports, indicates that the continent could see 300,000 deaths from the coronavirus even under the best-case scenario.

Africa has registered just over 20, 000 confirmed cases of COVID-19 and about 1, 000 deaths so far -- relatively few compared with other regions.

However, there are fears that the numbers could increase very steeply and overwhelm the respective countries’ health systems.

“We are concerned that the virus continues to spread geographically, within countries," said Matshidiso Moeti, director of WHO's Africa region, which comprises 46 sub-Saharan nations and Algeria.

"The numbers continue to increase every day."