TIFA Poll: Raila, Ruto neck-to-neck 10 days to elections

By , K24 Digital
On Fri, 29 Jul, 2022 12:26 | 2 mins read
Raila Odinga and William Ruto at past a function . Ruto was serving as the country's Deputy President. PHOTO/Courtesy
Raila Odinga and William Ruto at past a function . Ruto was serving as the country's Deputy President. PHOTO/Courtesy

Azimio la Umoja-One Kenya Alliance's Presidential candidate Raila Odinga is the most popular candidate 10 days to the polls, TIFA polls have shown.

Raila Odinga, with 46.7 percent popularity, maintains a very narrow lead over William Ruto (44.4 percent) for the presidential contest.

According to the pollsters, the presence of two other candidates, Prof. George Wajakoyah of the Roots Party of Kenya (now at 1.8%) and David Mwaure Waihiga of the Agano Party (0.1%), at least raises the possibility that neither Odinga nor Ruto will be able to secure an outright first round win, though combined their total figure would probably have to at least double to bring this about.

At least 1.9 percent did not respond, while 5.2 percent are still undecided on the presidential candidate of choice.

Presidential election TIFA

TIFA findings on Presidential candidates pairs

Odinga-Karua ticket receives most voting-intention support in Nyanza, but also enjoys plurality support in Coast, Lower Eastern, Nairobi, South Rift and Western.

For Ruto-Gachagua, they enjoy the most support in Central Rift and Mt. Kenya. However minimal nationally, Wajackoyah-Wamae attract most of their support in Coast and Lower Eastern, while Waihiga-Mutua only registered very slight support in Coast, Nyanza and Mt. Kenya.

TIFA polls
Source: TIFA polls

Odinga suffers from a markedly larger ‘gender gap’ than does Ruto (male/female 51 percent vs. 42 percent as opposed to 43 percent vs. 46 percent). In terms of age, Ruto enjoys only a slight advantage among younger registered/likely voters, a slight advantage also enjoyed by Wajakoyah, despite his overall minimal popularity.

Among those either undecided or who declined to reveal their presidential preference, there are considerably more women than men (11 percent vs. four percent).

Support for Ruto since TIFA’s last (June) survey has increased in six of the nine zones, especially in his ‘home’ Central Rift and Mt. Kenya (20 percent and 13 percent, respectively). However, he has suffered major declines in Northern and Western Zones (-24 percent and -11 percent respectively).